What is happening to the markets

The post below is not easy reading. But it captures what has really happened to our economy, without a lot of numbers.

Fisher's Debt-Deflation Theory

Essentially, for too many individuals and society as a whole, "capital has been betrayed into unproductive works."

"Had Fisher observed the Greenspan/Bernanke Fed in action, he might have updated his theory with a revision. At some point, capital betrayed into unproductive works has to either be repaid or written off. If either is inhibited by reflation or regulatory forbearance, then a cost is imposed on productive works, whether through inflation, higher interest, diversion of consumption, or taxation to socialise losses. Over time that cost ultimately hollows out the real productive economy leaving only bubble assets standing. Without a productive foundation, as reflation and forbearance reach their limits, those bubble assets must deflate." -- London Banker

We threw too much of our wealth away on things we didn't need. We borrowed to buy things we couldn't afford. When it came time to pay the bills, there wasn't any money.

Seduction of life without consequences

A while back we noted that the current financial and economic upheaval might have long term impact on how we live. Eye wrote about it in August of 2007, and referred to it again in March of this year, and again in May.

David Brooks has just done a far better job than Eye in an outstanding piece on why and how the current downturn affects us socially. (Read it here.) Brooks calls the current situation "The Great Seduction" and notes how our country's prosperity was built on "hard work, temperance and frugality."

Because he is an honest writer, Brooks offers a few solutions, then concludes:

"There are dozens of things that could be done. But the most important is to shift values. Franklin made it prestigious to embrace certain bourgeois virtues. Now it’s socially acceptable to undermine those virtues. It’s considered normal to play the debt game and imagine that decisions made today will have no consequences for the future."

Brooks misses one very important point. It may be necessary to allow greater hardship i.e., consequences, as a result of profligacy. This is the only way to modify behavior. The extent to which society, or government, mitigates consequences is the extent to which the problem will persist.

This is not just human nature, it is biology at its most basic. Why would we not do what we evolved to do, if there is no reason not to do it? That is why Franklin's message was so well regarded. He was offering a suggestion on how to improve life when the consequences of not doing so were dire.

The unpleasant side of this today is that there will be suffering that we are not used to seeing in America for the last couple of generations. And we will want to prevent the worst of this. But to be effective, we need to realize that every effort to reduce hardship above a "hit bottom" level will prolong it, or postpone it and make it worse when eventually the bills have to be paid.